The World Meteorological Organisation says there’s a growing chance that global temperatures will rise by more than 1.5C over the next five years, compared to pre-industrial levels.
It assesses a 20% chance the threshold will be broken in one year before 2024 and a 70% chance it will be broken in one or more months in those five years.
Scientists say it shows the tough task of controlling climate change levels.
The 2015 Paris accord had tasked world leaders with certain goals.
It committed them to pursue efforts to try to keep the world from warming by more than 1.5C this century.
This new assessment, carried out by the UK’s Met Office for the World Meteorological Organisation (WMO), says there’s a growing chance that this level will be breached.
Researchers say that the Earth’s average annual temperature is already more than 1C higher than it was in the 1850s – and will probably stay around this level over the next five years.
Previous studieshad put the short-term chances of going above 1.5C at 10% – that’s now doubled say the climate modellers, and it’s increasing with time.